The majority of the public believes they are worse off financially than when President Donald Trump won a second term nearly two years ago, according to a new poll that painted an ominous picture of Republicans’ electability in the 2026 midterm elections.

The Financial Times/Focaldata survey found that 53% of 2,152 respondents, including 24% of people who voted for Trump in 2024,  believe their economic condition has worsened. That number compares with 20% who said they were better off, and 26% who said they feel “about the same.” In the survey, 63% of respondents said they believe the economy is going in the wrong direction, including 37% of 2024 Trump voters. 

The results signal the Republican Party could face struggles in the November elections, facing particular vulnerabilities on affordability — voters’ top concern. Democrats lead Republicans on favorability ratings, 41% to 39%, according to the survey. Socialists, who have won primaries across the country and are eyeing a surge this fall, are more broadly viewed unfavorably, 44% to 22%. 

When asked which party is best at handling certain issues, Democrats carried healthcare and most issues related to affordability, including housing, inflation and the cost of living, and jobs and the economy. Republicans won on immigration and border security, crime and public safety, artificial intelligence, and war, including the Iran conflict. 

Inflation and the cost of living, the economy and jobs, and war and international conflicts emerged as the top three, in that order, when respondents were asked to identify the most important issues facing the country. When asked to name their top three priorities for their congressmember after the midterm elections, respondents listed the rising cost of groceries and gas, protecting Social Security and Medicare from funding cuts, and impeaching Trump, in that order. 

When asked who they would pick to be their party’s 2028 presidential nominee if forced to choose in the next few months, Vice President JD Vance carried the GOP side as top choice at 41%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio coming in second at 17%. On the Democratic side, former Vice President Kamala Harris, who lost the 2024 presidential race to Trump, came in at 29%, with Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) taking second at 13%. 

Favorability rankings for the top potential presidential contenders painted a tighter race. Rubio polled at 38%, while Vance took 40% among Republicans. Among Democrats, Harris polled at 42% favorability, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) at 29%, and Newsom at 28%. 

The poll also found that more extreme policies appear to be trending with voters. Emphasizing more moderation in both parties was favored by just 48% of respondents, compared to 52% who agreed that their preferred party should embrace more progressive or conservative policies.

Democrat-leaning respondents were more likely to favor leaning into moderate policies than their Republican counterparts, according to the poll. In the survey, 45% of 2024 Trump voters backed becoming more moderate “to win elections,” compared to 52% of respondents who voted for Harris that year. 

Another question on the survey indicated the jury is still out on whether Democrats prefer moderates. While respondents overall indicated a preference for “pragmatic moderates” over “progressive reformers” by a 35% to 27% margin, Harris voters were more likely than Trump voters to prefer the progressive candidate, 39% to 16%. 

The Financial Times/Focaldata survey’s margin of error is 2.1 percentage points. It polled 2,152 respondents between Aug. 7 and 11.