For Republicans on the ballot this fall, the hand they are forced to play is rather set. Even if so many of them had not so meekly submitted to President Donald Trump’s agenda, they would still be largely tethered to the President’s unpopularity and depth-charge-level approval ratings.

On the other hand, Democrats, as the party in charge of approximately nothing in Washington, had a far freer hand in choosing their message and messengers and which foot to put forward.

With the primary election season now having largely concluded, save for some early-September contests in New England and deeply blue Delaware, the Democratic Party’s choices are clear and the table is set.

Exceptions abound, including a surprise this past week in Wisconsin. But the punchline of Democratic primaries over many months has been a decided shift to the left in a way that makes progressive hearts go pitter-patter.

In New York City, a trio of Democratic socialist or closely aligned candidates defeated party mainstream opponents, including two incumbents, for congressional seats. Down I-95 in Philadelphia, the DSA’s Chris Rabb handily won a four-way congressional primary.

Following three wins, including that of incumbent firebrand Rashida Tlaib, Detroit stands to be the first city to be represented in Congress exclusively by multiple Democratic socialists.

Of course, here at home, we witnessed Melat Kiros end the career of Diana DeGette by a full 13 points. DeGette first took her seat in Congress a year before Kiros was born.

Taken together, these wins by self-proclaimed or allied Democratic socialists have one thing in common: Almost all took place in very urban districts tailor-made for such activist, uber-progressive politics.

But those wins in congressional primaries were not the end of it. In perhaps the most closely watched race of the season, Abdul El-Sayed won the nomination for the open Michigan Senate seat, having run well to the left of his opponent, Rep. Haley Stevens. El-Sayed prevailed by a single point, indicating a deep split in Democratic ranks.

All of which leads to a number of thoughts and observations. For starters, none of this is that surprising. As best represented by Joe Biden, the Democratic establishment had grown very long in the tooth.

Moreover, in the aftermath of the 2024 debacle and with their party holding precious few levers in the era of Trump 2.0, Democratic partisans are left feeling powerless, on edge and angry at a government that does not function, with that blame extending to some of their own leaders as well. Add in the growing dissent from the mainstream’s longtime alliance with the Israeli state and you have quite a toxic brew.

To date, the success of highly visible, highly progressive standard-bearers has been mostly confined to friendly urban districts and now and then an overwhelmingly Democratic state. In that latter category, think Bernie Sanders in Vermont or Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts.

Michigan is not going to be confused for Vermont or Massachusetts or Colorado, anytime soon.

The headline battle of the year centers on control of the Senate and U.S. House. The latter will come down to the strength of the midterm wind at the back of the party out of power. Though competitive Senate races, far fewer in number, turn more on individual circumstances.

Democrats require a net gain of four seats to give Chuck Schumer, deep yawn, the Senate reins. That is a heavy lift in any case. Color me dubious, very dubious, about the party’s prospects absent wins in Maine and Michigan.

The Maine seat may well already have been squandered. Republican incumbent Susan Collins has long been formidable. While Democrats have tripped all over themselves in their zeal for an unvetted candidate out of central casting.

Two years ago, Democrat Elissa Slotkin won a Michigan Senate seat defeating Republican Mike Rogers by just 19,000 votes out of nearly 5.5 million ballots cast. Rogers is now back as the nominee against El-Sayed.

Yes, El-Sayed may energize some new voters around Ann Arbor and East Lansing. In a move sure to turn a solid half-dozen votes, the American Association of University Professors broke with a 111-year tradition of political neutrality to endorse El-Sayed.

Those numbers are likely to be dwarfed by the loss of centrist Democrats who find his candidacy several bridges too far. All those angered, disaffected Democrats and socialist-adjacent types so enamored with El-Sayed might be filled with second thoughts if Republican Rogers heads to Washington.

Some have equated the Democratic dilemma this year to the GOP experience in 2022 when unelectable, overly polarizing candidates like Herschel Walker, Dan Bolduc and Blake Masters cost them winnable Senate seats.

Of course, if pervasive discontent with Trump turns the projected Democratic breeze into a gale-force wind or even a hurricane, all bets are off and some subpar, extreme Democratic candidates can triumph.

But that is a low-odds roll of the dice. Moreover, it would make for a dangerously false and delusional affirmation of the party’s far-left flank in advance of the high-stakes process of choosing a Democratic presidential nominee two years hence.

Eric Sondermann is a Colorado-based independent political commentator. He writes regularly for ColoradoPolitics and the Gazette newspapers. Reach him at EWS@EricSondermann.com; follow him at @EricSondermann