With Donald Trump all but certain to become the Republican nominee, a recent poll shows he has closed some of the gap against President Joe Biden in Colorado since losing the state by double digits four years ago.

But the Republican still lags behind Biden by a margin well outside of the poll’s margin of error.

In a head to head matchup between Biden and Trump, the Democrat wins 47% of the vote, compared to Trump’s 40%, according to the annual Colorado Political Climate Survey.

In 2020, the Colorado Political Climate Survey painted a different picture, with Biden winning 47% of the vote and Trump finishing with 37%.

Both polls were conducted by the American Politics Research Lab at CU Boulder and the polling company YouGov. The 2023 poll, which has a margin of error of 4.23 points, surveyed 800 people.  

Biden solidly won Colorado in 2020, defeating Trump by 13.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton also carried the state over Trump, but only by 5%.

The survey oversampled both Democrats and Republicans, which made 35% and 30%, respectively, of the sample size, while independents were at 35%.   

The latest data from the Secretary of State’s Office puts unaffiliated voters at 48%, Democrats at 27% and Republicans at 24%.

According to the survey, Biden’s approval rating in Colorado hovers around 42%. In 2022, the same survey put his approval rating at 39%. In 2021, he scored his best in the annual survey at 44%.

Gov. Jared Polis, meanwhile, fared better than Biden with a 49% approval rating.

Biden’s Democratic counterparts did not fare much better in the annual survey, with U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper receiving a 43% approval rating and U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet finishing at 41%.