The Thursday report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Drought Monitor brought lots of smiles to Coloradans who worry about the state’s drought conditions.

The end-of-December snowfalls, which pushed much of Colorado above its December averages, also pushed a good chunk of the state out of drought.

But experts say it’s too early to make predictions about the state’s water outlook.

The state’s snowpack is similar to levels it saw last year, before conditions dried out for a month or so and the mountains ended the seasons with snow levels below average, he said.

This is the third La Ninã winter in a row for Colorado, a climate pattern that can favor wetter weather in northern Colorado and drier weather in southern areas. But that pattern could end in the spring.

“I think the big question mark is what is going to happen with La Nina in the spring,” Schumacher said.

As of Dec. 27, 13.75% of Colorado was drought-free entirely in the central mountains and south into the San Luis Valley. 

The numbers for Jan. 6 showed the recent snow raised that percentage to nearly 40%, and that meant almost all of the Western Slope is at least temporarily out of drought conditions. 

The map also showed the northeastern Colorado counties of Sedgwick and Phillips, which have been plagued by the worst drought of all – known as D4 or exceptional drought – are also improving. That level of drought is now nearly non-existent, and D3, or extreme drought, exists only in those two counties, plus a small portion of Prowers County and about half of Baca County, both in southeastern Colorado. 

The Front Range, which saw seven inches in most areas of heavy, wet snow to close out 2022, helped push the December average to record levels. At Denver International Airport, the snowfall during those last few days contained about 0.67 inches of rain and snow-melt, which is more than the area usually gets in December and January combined. 

El Paso County also saw dramatic improvement in the past week, with severe drought conditions on the county’s east side all but gone.

A look at snow-water-equivalent – that’s a measurement on the depth of water that would cover the ground if the snow cover was in a liquid state – from the Natural Resources Conservation Service shows most of the state snowpack sits at or above average.

As of Jan. 6, the snowpack is at 124% of median, the NRCS reported Friday.

So far, however, the snowpack hasn’t done much for reservoir storage in the two major reservoirs that have been tapped to keep water flowing through the Colorado River and into Lake Powell.

Reservoirs in the Gunnison River Basin have improved by about 4% over the last six weeks. Blue Mesa, the state’s second largest, was at 48% of capacity in September. As of Dec. 31, it had increased to 50%. 

Blue Mesa and Navajo, in the Animas/San Juan basin, were tapped a year ago for water to help improve stream flows in the Colorado River. 

Navajo, the largest reservoir, which spans both Colorado and New Mexico, is now at 64% of capacity and has seen no improvement in recent months. 

Spring is critical for the state’s water outlook because that’s when snowpack peaks. The southern part of the state typically hits peak snowpack in late March or early April, while the northern part of the state can peak later in late April or early May.

So, it’s too soon to say whether the state could see enough runoff to recharge depleted reservoirs, such as Blue Mesa.

“We’ll need to keep the snow going through the rest of the winter if we want to see a good recharge into those reservoirs,” Schumacher said.

It is possible to recharge the state’s reservoirs in a single season if conditions are good. But it would take far more than one season of good snow to turn around the low levels in Lake Powell and Lake Mead after decades of drought.

The two lakes are critical reservoirs for the management of the Colorado River basin.

However, snowpack across the basin looks good, particularly in Utah, according to NRCS data.