The early arrival of summer monsoons in late June has been a welcome sight for a parched state, but the rains have not been enough to put an end to the drought.

Colorado water watchers from federal and state agencies and local water providers, known as the Water Availability Task Force, couldn’t have been happier as they looked over the numbers from the last 30 days. Precipitation has been well above normal in that period, and it’s put the state near average for the entire water year. In the 23rd year of a drought, near average precipitation is considered very good news.

But high temperatures in July — the fifth hottest on record for Colorado — dampened some of the progress the monsoons could have made in refilling reservoirs or improving soil conditions. That heat compounded the problems caused by a warm and windy spring, which accelerated snowmelt, in some places weeks earlier than usual. 

Russ Schumacher, the state climatologist with the Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University, pointed out that those warm July nights had one positive: lots of humidity and cloud cover, which reduced evaporative demand, the loss of water from surfaces caused by high temperatures and wind speed, low humidity and lack of cloud cover.

The outlook for the next couple of weeks is for less heat and more moisture, though Schumacher also pointed out that “La Niña” – the weather pattern that has aggravated the drought over the last two years – could be headed into a third winter. La Niña patterns, which don’t usually last more than a year or two, result in warmer conditions and less winter precipitation. Schumacher said the pattern is expected to persist during the fall but could weaken this winter.

Day-to-day drought conditions have improved significantly in the past three months, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. In mid-May, the entire state was in some form of drought, with 62% of the state in moderate to extreme drought. As of last week, 58% of the state is in those same levels of drought, but there’s pockets around the state that are out of drought entirely, primarily in the north central mountains and in the western half of the San Luis Valley. But drought is worsening in northeastern and southeastern Colorado, Schumacher noted.

Some pockets of the state are still experiencing the worst of it. Baca, Sedgwick and Phillips counties on the Eastern Plains have so far missed out on those monsoons, and the economic consequences have been severe. Schumacher showed a photo he’d taken in northeastern Colorado of burned corn crops. Farmers are no longer desperate for water, he said. They’re more like “resigned” that the corn crop isn’t coming back and holding out hope for enough moisture to plant wheat in the next two months, according to Cindy Lair of the state Department of Agriculture.

Reservoir storage shows the effect of the lingering drought, and nowhere is that more obvious than in the Gunnison River basin, which holds the state’s largest reservoir, Blue Mesa. That reservoir was tapped late last year in hopes of keeping water levels at Lake Powell from dropping to critical lows. Even with the monsoons, Blue Mesa is now at just 44% of capacity, according Aug. 9 numbers from the Bureau of Reclamation.

Southwestern Colorado, the basin that includes the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan rivers, are seeing some of the lowest overall levels in the state. Navajo Reservoir, which also was tapped last year to help out at Lake Powell, is at 65% of capacity.

Reservoirs on the Colorado River basin and the South Platte tell a better tale: They are at capacity or nearly so, according to Schumacher’s presentation.