In six months, most Colorado voters will begin receiving their general election ballots in the mail, but before that ballot is set, voters first have to choose which Republicans will go up against the Democratic incumbents in major statewide races.

Republicans Greg Lopez, a former mayor of Parker, and Heidi Ganahl, an at-large member of the University of Colorado Board of Regents, are facing off in the June primary for the chance to challenge Democratic Gov. Jared Polis, the former five-term congressman who was elected to the state’s top executive office four years ago by a 10.6-percentage point margin.

Colorado’s race for governor isn’t considered competitive by national forecasters, but state Republicans are counting on the stars aligning for their candidates this year as President Joe Biden’s approval rating keeps dropping amid rising voter dissatisfaction while the Democrats are in charge of the state.

It’s been eight years since Colorado voters last elected a governor with a Democrat in the White House – in 2014, when then-President Barack Obama’s numbers were also upside down in Colorado, a state he had won twice.

That’s the year when Gov. John Hickenlooper, the incumbent Democrat, won a second term over GOP nominee Bob Beauprez, the former congressman making his second run for governor. On the same ballot, Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Udall lost his campaign for another term to then-U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner, the Republican who, in turn, lost his reelection bid last cycle to Hickenlooper.

Gardner’s 2014 win was the last time a Republican won a top-ticket, statewide race in Colorado, though the state GOP has suffered a 20-year dry spell since the state last elected a Republican governor in 2002. That year, voters handed a second term to Bill Owens, Colorado’s only Republican governor in the last 50 years.

While Republicans are licking their chops at the prospect of staging a comeback in Colorado after three straight cycles of losing ground, the fate of the party’s November slate is up to voters in June, when nominees will be picked by the Republicans and unaffiliated voters who cast ballots in the GOP primary under the state’s semi-open primary system.

That choice could be decisive for Colorado’s political environment for years to come, veteran GOP strategist and former three-term State GOP chairman Dick Wadhams told Colorado Politics.

“I have never seen such a stark choice in Republican primaries like we’re going to have this year,” said Wadhams. “It’s the difference between having a really successful year and having a really disastrous year.”

Wadhams, who helmed winning statewide campaigns for Owens and former U.S. Sen. Wayne Allard, among others, said the party risks walling itself off from the vast majority of state voters if it nominates candidates who embrace former President Donald Trump’s unfounded claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him.

“I honestly believe the decisions Republican primary voters make will determine if Colorado Republican are relevant or not – not only in 2022, but beyond,” he said, adding, “The state is terribly close to being another California or Washington or Oregon – essentially a one-party state where Republicans can only win in safe districts but aren’t competitive statewide.”

While Wadhams voices his loudest warnings against Republicans nominating U.S. Senate candidate Ron Hanks and secretary of state candidate Tina Peters – two of the leading promoters of Trump’s stolen election theory – he told Colorado Politics that Lopez and Ganahl both ‘fumbled” the questions related to the topic at a recent candidate forum Wadhams helped moderate.

Polis was the sole Democrat nominated to the primary ballot for governor at a virtual assembly held on April 9, the same day state Republicans met at the World Arena in Colorado Springs for their state assembly. The Democrats’ brisk confab clocked in at just under three hours, while the Republicans spent roughly 10 hours – plus additional time as delegates waited in slow-moving lines before proceedings got underway – to nominate candidates to the primary and conduct other party business.

Major-party candidates can advance to Colorado’s primary ballot by winning support from at least 30% of delegates to party assemblies or by turning in the required number of signatures from fellow party members on nominating petitions.

Lopez took top line on the primary ballot with about 34.3% support from delegates at the Republicans’ state assembly. Ganahl, meanwhile, qualified both ways, by winning about 32.6% of the vote at assembly after having already qualified by petition a week earlier.

Another seven Republicans fell short of the threshold, including first-time gubernatorial candidate Danielle Neuschwanger, an Elbert County rancher and real estate agent, who received 27% of the vote. (Only one of the candidates who trailed Neuschwanger broke into single-digits, with the rest receiving less than 1% of the delegate vote.)

Hanks, a state lawmaker from Cañon City, was the only Republican U.S. Senate candidate to make the primary via the assembly route, finishing with 39% of the vote, ahead of five other candidates. He’ll face construction company owner Joe O’Dea, a first-time candidate who petitioned onto the ballot. The winner of the primary will go up against Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet, who is seeking a third full term.

Peters, the Mesa County clerk, was the top vote-getter in a contested race at the Republicans’ state assembly with about 61% of the vote, ahead of first-time candidate Mike O’Donnell, a Yuma County economic development specialist. The two are facing a primary with former Jefferson County Clerk Pam Anderson, the lone GOP secretary of state candidate to declare that fraud didn’t change the outcome of the 2020 election, who qualified by petition.

At the assembly, Lopez drew the loudest cheers of his speech with a promise to pardon Peters – who was indicted by a grand jury last month on seven felony and three misdemeanor counts linked to allegations she breached secure election equipment last year in what Peters described as an attempt to preserve election records – if she was “improperly prosecuted.”

Polis pitches reelection bid

 In a speech to delegates, Polis, who didn’t face opposition at the state Democrats’ assembly, pitched his first term as a success in the face of historic challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic damage in its wake. 

“Folks, you don’t need me to tell you that we faced the unimaginable these last few years,” Polis said after thanking the Democrats who nominated him and hailing his running mate, Lt. Gov. Dianne Primavera. “But here in Colorado, we’ve shown the nation the kind of progress and leadership and decisions that you can make even in tough times when we lead the Colorado way, and when you look past misinformation and look to science and data and hard truth.”

Under fire from Republicans for what they argue were excessive pandemic restrictions, Polis has won national praise – including from conservative pundits – for being among the first Democratic governors to declare their state was ready to move beyond lockdowns and mandates as this winter’s omicron variant wave began to ebb.

“Democrats, when we talk about the fact that Colorado has had one of the lowest death rates in the country from COVID-19, fewer state restrictions, our kids have been back in school more than most other states, and we have one of the highest vaccination rates in the country, especially for a large, geographically diverse state.

“When we talk about historic investments that we’ve made together – in our public schools, in clean air, strong mental health, good jobs, better transportation, including transit – all while building up the strongest reserves and rainy-day fund that Colorado has had in the history of our state, we should be very clear: These things did not happen by accident. They happen with Democrats leading the way,” he said. “We are resilient. We are pragmatic. We are data-driven. They happened because Colorado Democrats led with a steady hand and with the best solutions for Coloradans every step of the way.”

Among the accomplishments cited by Polis and his campaign, Colorado has, under his administration, eliminated personal property taxes paid by businesses, boosted the state’s earned income tax credit and child tax credit, cut the assessment rate on homes, reduced the income tax rate and eliminated state taxes on social security payments to older residents. In addition, health care insurance premiums have dropped by an average 24% in the individual market and the price of insulin has been capped at $100 a month.

Polis, who served a six-year term on the State Board of Education before his election to Congress, pointed to early fulfillment of one of his gubernatorial campaign promises. 

“When it comes to education, the passion of my life, I’m proud to say that in our first year we created free full-day kindergarten for every child in our state. And now we are preparing to launch universal, free preschool for every kid in the fall of 2023. Look, that’s real progress,” he said.

“So here’s the choice we face in the upcoming election,” he said. “We can continue leading with our bold ideas and innovation and move forward, or we can turn the state over to out-of-touch politicians who’ve embraced extremism over problem-solving.”

A wealthy tech entrepreneur who first struck it rich while in college during the early days of the internet, Polis was the first openly gay man elected governor in the United States. Last year he married his longtime partner, Marlon Reis.

After pouring $23 million of his own fortune into his first gubernatorial, his campaign says Polis plans to spend what’s necessary on his reelection effort.

Lopez, Ganahl make their cases

“We the people, we’re frustrated, we’re angry,” Ganahl told delegates at the GOP assembly. “Let’s send Jared Polis a message he can’t buy or cancel: ‘You’re fired.'”

Ganahl is also a wealthy entrepreneur, having founded and later sold the Camp Bow Wow national chain of dog daycare centers. Since selling the company, she’s founded several nonprofits, including the Fight Back Foundation and runs a digital lifestyle platform with her daughter. Ganahl and her husband, Jason, who owns several GQue BBQ restaurants in the metro area, live in Douglas County.

Noting that she’s the only Republican currently holding statewide elected office in Colorado, Ganahl, who calls herself “a mom on a mission,” opened her assembly speech by stressing her perseverance after her first husband died in a plane crash and after recovering from recent surgery to remove a benign brain tumor.

“When they took out that tumor, they took out my filter,” she said, “and I’m feistier than ever.”

Lopez finished in third-place in the 2018 gubernatorial primary and has been seeking a rematch with Polis since the Democrat took office. In addition to serving as mayor of Parker in the mid-1990s, Lopez served as state director of the federal Small Business Administration from 2008 to 2014.

Two years ago, Lopez settled a lawsuit brought by federal prosecutors alleging he violated federal law by attempting to influence the agency’s handling of a loan guarantee to a business owned by a friend after he left his position with the agency. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, Lopez settled the case in 2020 by paying $15,000 and acknowledging that prosecutors could prove the allegations in the civil action, though he insists he didn’t know that what he did was wrong.

Both Republicans lay a litany of complaints at the feet of Democrats, who have been in control of state government for the last four years after sweeping every statewide executive office and winning majorities in both chambers of the General Assembly.

“I know how to deal with all the issues that the state is currently facing,” Lopez said during an April 14 candidate forum in Lakewood sponsored by Foothills Republicans. “Gov. Polis has no understanding of how to govern. He has gotten Colorado into a crisis. Everywhere we look there’s a crisis in Colorado.”

Lopez said he will be tough on crime, “stand tall” in the face of bureaucrats, institute school vouchers and bring vocational training back to high schools while also making Colorado energy-independent and making housing affordable.

“There are not political issues,” Lopez said. “They’re not Republican, Democrat or unaffiliated issues. These are people issues. These issues affect families, they impact our kids. And I’m here to tell you you: stand with me, and we’ll make Colorado a state we can all be proud of.”

At the same forum, Ganahl said her “experience, attitude and results” are what Republicans need to “send Polis and his buddies back to Boulder.”

“We also need someone who understands the challenges we’re facing,” she said. “I understand what parents are facing. I have four kids ranging in age from 9 to 26, and, like you, I want to raise them to be lions to think for themselves, not what Polis wants – sheep that can be told what to think.”

“As governor, I’ll lead the charge to teach the ABCs and not the CRTs,” she added, using an abbreviation for Critical Race Theory, a once-obscure academic approach primarily used in law schools that has been adopted in the last year by many Republicans as an stand-in for race education they disagree with.

Ganahl said she plans “on Day One” to revoke Polis’s executive orders and start replacing members of the state’s hundreds of boards and commissions she said allow Polis to accomplish “his dirty work.”

“The cost of living is out of control, it’s too expensive to live here in Colorado, and we can address that,” Ganahl said. “I plan to go to 0% income tax in my first term and also cut the gas tax in half and still fix the roads.”

Added Ganahl: “Rural Colorado needs a voice, and we need to get our energy workers back to work producing oil and gas.”

Both candidates regularly rip Polis for dismissing rural parts of the state, citing legislation that tightened restrictions on fossil fuel extraction and the governor’s controversial 2020 declaration of a “Meat Out” day to promote plant-based meat alternatives. 

“I will always champion rural Colorado,” Lopez said. “I am not going to allow our state to be divided between the urban corridor and rural Colorado. We must bring that together again.”

Lopez has made what he terms “environmental stewardship” a centerpiece of his campaign, though he faults Democrats for relying on regulations rather than persuasion.

Recalling an iconic anti-pollution TV ad from the early 1970s, Lopez said, “You guys remember the public announcements … the Native American had that tear coming down his face – that impacted all of us because it told us we have a responsibility. We have a responsibility to our state, into our country, to our environment. It is time we bring those types of messages back so that we can educate people, not mandate to them how they should do it, but truly change their hearts and minds, truly inspire them to make sure that we are working together on this.”

Ganahl said she plans to communicate with rural Coloradans.

“We’ve got to listen to the people across the state – instead of just listening to people in Denver and Boulder – to address the issues in rural Colorado,” she said. “So, my first priority is to be a voice for the people of rural Colorado, to listen, to travel, to engage with them and make sure that their kids have opportunities to stay there if they want to, and raise a family to take over the family ranch and protect their water rights.”

Near the end of the Foothills Republicans’ forum, Wadhams tailored specific questions involving election integrity for each candidate.

Noting that Ganahl came under criticism early in her campaign for being unable to state clearly whether the 2020 presidential election was stolen, Wadhams said the question will remain front-and-center for this year’s election because Trump continues to make the contention.

“If you’re the nominee, you’ll have to deal with it – or not,” he said to Ganahl. “Could you please state your position on whether the 2020 presidential election was stolen or not.”

Ganahl appeared to agree with him that the election was legitimate but then quickly moved on.

“Yes, Dick, I’ve said this many, many times,” she said. “The media just doesn’t like that. Joe Biden is our president, unfortunately. We’ve got to change that. We’ve got to change that he’s destroying our country. But I’m running against Jared Polis, and I’ve got to stay focused on Nov. 8, 2022, and beating Jared Polis.”

“There are a lot of people who feel like their vote doesn’t matter,” Ganahl continued. “Voter confidence is at one of the lowest levels in years here in Colorado. So, we’ve got to make people more engaged, more comfortable.”

She said people can be poll watchers and get a better understanding of how elections work. She then suggested “ways to improve the process,” including putting an end to “ballot harvesting,” require IDs at some points in the process and “make sure that our voter rolls are cleaned up.”

As Ganahl concluded – urging the audience to “please, please stay engaged, stay involved” – audience members said she hadn’t answered the question, to which she responded, “I did, I did!”

“Frankly, she didn’t really answer the question,” Wadhams told Colorado Politics after the forum. “You cannot get away with trying to pussyfoot around it. It isn’t going to work.”

Wadhams added that he disagrees with fellow Republicans who complain that the media keeps bringing up the question.

“It’s not the media, it’s Donald Trump,” he said. “Every time he goes to a rally, he reiterates the claim. It is going to be a question that every Republican is going to have to answer. I think every Republican candidate has to come to grips with this.”

Turning to Lopez, Wadhams asked whether he regretted telling the assembly crowd that, if elected governor, he would pardon Peters if she is “improperly” prosecuted.

“Having worked for Gov. Bill Owens, I know how seriously he took that power, as did his predecessors and now the successors in the Governor’s Office,” Wadhams said. “Do you think it was appropriate to make such a statement in such a politicized environment?”

“I do,” Lopez said. “And let me tell you what, I want everybody to understand that I stand for the rule of law. I stand for the rule of law. Everybody’s innocent until proven guilty.”

Noting that he read the 18-page indictment handed down last month by a Mesa County Grand Jury, Lopez continued: “I have serious concerns about what I read. But we must always remember that we are all innocent until it’s proven guilty. Our government right now is upside down. We need to correct it. Right now, you’re guilty, and you must prove yourself innocent. And I do take the role of the government very seriously.”

Lopez added, “I take seriously what the governor does. That’s what governing is. You don’t just do executive orders because you woke up with an itch. You do it because it’s important. So, I will always make sure that whatever decision I make, I’m looking with visionary glasses because it’s going to impact millions of people anytime you make a decision.”

Wadhams told Colorado Politics he is concerned Lopez simply doubled down on the applause line he delivered at the assembly.

“Frankly, I thought they both fumbled those two questions,” Wadhams said.

County clerks put ballots in the mail to military and overseas voters by May 14 and start mailing ballots to most Colorado voters on June 6. Ballots must be returned by 7 p.m. June 28.

Editor’s note: This story has been corrected to reflect that Gov. John Hickenlooper won a second term in 2014 against Republican nominee Bob Beauprez. Hickenlooper won his first term in 2010 against Republican nominee Dan Maes and American Constitution Party nominee Tom Tancredo.