Republican hopes for retaking control of the state Senate, and ending the Democratic hold on complete power in the state Capitol (including the governor’s office) boiled down to five seats. In the end, they lost one and as of 10 p.m. were waiting to see if they’ll lose another.

Through 10 p.m. Tuesday night, Democrats had flipped one Republican seat, in Centennial. 

A total of 18 seats were up for election Tuesday night, although just five are considered competitive. 

In 2019-20, Democrats held a 19-16 advantage, and on Tuesday hoped to flip three seats to build upon their majority, in Senate District 8 (northwestern Colorado), Senate District 25 (Adams County) and Senate District 27 (Centennial, Arapahoe County). Republicans hope to flip the bare minimum two seats they would need to regain the majority, in Senate District 19 (north Jeffco) and Senate District 26 (Arapahoe County, including Greenwood Village, Englewood and Sheridan). 

The competitive seats

SENATE DISTRICT 25: Adams County, including Brighton. This race has drawn more spending by super PACs, also known as independent expenditure committees (IECs) than any other in the state. 

The candidates: Incumbent Republican Sen. Kevin Priola of Henderson and Democrat Paula Dickerson of Thornton. As of 10 p.m., Priola was holding onto a 1.5-percentage-point lead, or about 1,000 votes out of almost 65,000 cast. 

The race: Democrats hold an 8-point lead over the GOP in voter registration in the district, but Priola is a moderate who has enjoyed strong support from constituents of all political stripes in his previous five runs for office.

The money: Dickerson and Priola were more or less evenly matched in their campaign fundraising, with Dickerson bringing in $111,474, including a $1,500 loan. Priola has raised $106,847.

But it has been spending by independent expenditure committees that have shown just how much is at stake.  Through Oct. 28, IECs opposing Dickerson or supporting Priola have spent at least $2.1 million. On the other side, the IECs supporting Dickerson or opposing Priola have spent $1.9 million.

SENATE DISTRICT 8, northwestern Colorado

The candidates: Incumbent Republican Sen. Bob Rankin of Carbondale, appointed to the seat in 2019 after the resignation of Sen. Randy Baumgardner of Hot Sulphur Springs. He faced Democrat Karl Hanlon, also of Carbondale. As of 10 p.m., Hanlon’s lead had evaporated to less than 1 percentage point.   

The race: Late — and big dollar — spending by IECs in favor of Rankin in the last two weeks before the election indicates Republicans may be nervous about this seat. Voter registration has also shifted. The GOP holds a 5,000-active voter registration advantage, down from 9,000 four years ago, and unaffiliated voter numbers have increased by 10,000 in the past four years to lead all groups.

The money: The Senate Majority Fund’s IEC went on a spending tear ($393,416) in the last two weeks to bolster Rankin’s chances. That brings their total on the race to $617,251. Unite for Colorado kicked in $34,337 to oppose Hanlon and along with an IEC from rural electric coops kicked in $394,939 to back Rankin, bringing the total on Rankin’s side to just over $686,000.

Two IECs backing Democrats for the state Senate — Leading Colorado Forward and Coloradans Creating Opportunities — have collectively spent more than $885,000 to support Hanlon or oppose Rankin. 

Hanlon has raised $115,068, including an $18,000 loan late in the campaign season. Rankin has raised $139,175.

SENATE DISTRICT 27: Arapahoe County, including Centennial

The candidates: This is an open seat. Incumbent Republican Sen. Jack Tate chose not to run for re-election in 2020. Facing off: Democrat Chris Kolker and Republican Suzanne Staiert. Senate Democrats declared the race over just after 8:15 p.m., with Kolker leading by more than 14 percentage points. 

The race: Staiert, a former deputy Secretary of State, was fined last month for violating state campaign finance laws. She prosecuted the case against former Gov. and Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate John Hickenlooper with the state’s ethics commission. That resulted in two findings that Hickenlooper violated the state’s ethics law, Amendment 41, and a $2,750 fine.

Kolker is making his second bid for the General Assembly. Voter registration numbers show the 7,000-active voter registration advantage the GOP enjoyed four years ago had evaporated to 500.

The money: Staiert has been in Democratic crosshairs from the beginning. Leading Colorado Forward led the opposition, and all super PACs combined have now spent more than $2.4 million to back Kolker or oppose Staiert. 

Through Oct. 28, Unite for Colorado has spent $175,000 to support Staiert; Americans for Prosperity Action, despite boasts early on that they would put sizable resources into the race, spent just $63,569 through Oct. 28 to back Staiert.

Kolker enjoyed a big advantage in fundraising, with $22,807 raised to Staiert’s $85,772 through Oct. 28.

The other two: while these seats initially were on Republicans’ wish list, spending by IECs in favor of the Republicans dwindled, indicating those races were out of reach. 

SENATE DISTRICT 19, Arvada and SENATE DISTRICT 26, Greenwood Village

The candidates: For SD19, incumbent Democratic Sen. Rachel Zenzinger of Arvada versus Republican Lynn Gerber; and in SD26, incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeff Bridges of Greenwood Village versus Republican Bob Roth, a former Aurora City Councilman. 

As of 10 p.m., Bridges had a commanding 25-percentage-point lead over Roth. Zenzinger has a 19-percentage-point lead over Gerber, also as of 10 p.m. 

The races: Gerber has faced criticism for sharing several QAnon conspiracies, including that COVID-19 is a “deep state insurgency,” later debunked, on Facebook. She later deleted those posts. Voter registration leans Democratic, with 6,000 more active Democratic voters than Republicans. Unaffiliated voters lead both groups, and will determine who wins the seat. 

In SD26, Democrats hold a 10,000 voter advantage over Republicans, although unaffiliated voters lead both groups. 

The money: Unite for Colorado shelled out $175,000 for Gerber in August and nothing since. IECs have not backed Roth in his contest against Bridges. Several IECs, including Leading Colorado Forward, have put at least $135,000 toward support for Bridges. A collection of IECs supporting Zenzinger have spent at least $416,000 through Oct. 28.

Both Zenzinger and Bridges raised six-figure campaign war chests in the 2020 election cycle. Zenzinger has raised $357,477 to Gerber’s $51,080 through Oct. 28. Bridges brought in $251,534 through Oct. 28 to Roth’s $40,790.

Democrats had one other stretch goal: Senate District 23, a Weld County seat held by term-limited Republican Sen. Vicki Marble of Fort Collins. As of 10 p.m., Republican candidate and Weld County Commissioner Barbara Kirkmeyer was holding onto a 6-percentage-point lead over Democrat Sally Boccella.

Senate Minority Leader Chris Holbert of Parker, in a statement issued at 8:30 p.m. Tuesday, said that for the past 18 months, a majority of voters in swing districts have said they dislike single-party control of the state government.

“They prefer the bipartisanship and moderation that occurs with balance in our state legislative branch. Yet, tonight, those same voters have decided to continue with single-party control,” he said. “Senate Republicans respect that result. We will, as we always have, continue to advocate for individual liberties, economic opportunity, and limited government going into this next legislative session, and we remain focused on restoring balance in 2022.”