Mitsch Bush Boebert

Colorado's 3rd Congressional District candidates Diane Mitsch Bush, the Democrat, and Lauren Boebert, the Republican

The race for Colorado's open 3rd Congressional District seat is a dead heat between Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush and Republican Lauren Boebert, an internal poll conducted for the Mitsch Bush campaign has found.

Mitsch Bush leads Boebert 43% to 42%, according to a survey of likely voters conducted Aug. 3-6 by Washington, D.C.-based Democratic polling firm GQR.

Another 11% of respondents chose third-party or other candidates, and 4% said they were undecided. Mitsch Bush's 1-point lead is within the poll's 4.9% margin of error.

The poll also found Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden tied at 48% apiece in the district, which landed in Trump's column by a 12 percentage point margin in 2016, the same year Democrat Hillary Clinton won Colorado by 5 percentage points.

A spokesman for the House Republicans' campaign arm dismissed the Democrats' internal poll results as "nonsense."

Mitsch Bush, however, trumpeted the poll's results as evidence she's in the running to take the seat back from the Republicans, who have held the district since the 2018 election.

“This poll confirms what we already knew: people in this district want a pragmatic leader who has worked across the aisle to get things done," Mitsch Bush said in a statement. “Washington is broken, and Lauren Boebert’s unwillingness to compromise and extreme positions will only contribute to the partisan gridlock. We don’t need more of that in Washington.”

“Regardless of any nonsense polls Diane Mitsch Bush and her handlers in DC cook up, this is a solidly conservative district that will not elect a socialist," Bob Salera, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, told Colorado Politics. "Lauren Boebert will be the next member of Congress from the 3rd District.”

A spokeswoman for the Boebert campaign declined to comment.

Mitsch Bush, a former county commissioner and state lawmaker, lost a bid to unseat U.S. Rep. Scott Tipton, the district's five-term Republican incumbent, by 8 percentage points in the last election.

Boebert, a restaurant owner and first-time candidate, defeated Tipton by a slightly larger margin to win the Republican nomination in this year's June 30 primary, in an upset that prompted national election forecasters to shift the Republican-leaning seat toward the Democrats.

Neither nominee is that well known by likely voters, though both are in net-positive territory among the voters who do have an opinion.

According to the survey, 31% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Mitsch Bush, and just 15% view her unfavorably. Boebert isn't far behind, with 25% viewing her favorably and 18% viewing her unfavorably.

Covering the Western Slope, Pueblo County and the San Luis Valley, the sprawling district has a Partisan Voting Index of R+6, according to The Cook Political Report, meaning GOP candidate have a 6 percentage point edge going into the election.

The firm surveyed 400 likely general election voters using live telephone interviews — the gold standard in polling these days — with 57% of the completed calls to cell phones. The polling sample mirrored the district's partisan breakdown, with Democrats making up 28% of respondents, Republicans making up 34% and unaffiliated and members of other parties making up 38%, the Mitsch Bush campaign said.

The Mitsch Bush campaign declined to make the entire poll available. A spokeswoman for Boebert said the campaign didn't have internal polling. There hasn't been any other publicly released polling for the seat this cycle.

TRAIL MIX | What's in a letter? A lot, when it's Q
Following Boebert win, more election forecasters nudge 3rd CD toward Democrats
Lauren Boebert rockets to fame — and controversy — with primary upset in CD3
National GOP congressional group names Lauren Boebert to 'Young Guns' program

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