Colorado polling veteran Floyd Ciruli thinks it's likely and remarkable that recent assessments show President Trump in a horse race with Joe Biden on the Western Slope.
Ciruli is the director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver and teaches graduate-level courses in survey analysis and methodology.
Trump won the 3rd Congressional District by 12 points four years ago. The district spans western Colorado and wraps around southern Colorado to include Pueblo County. Trump was the first Republican to win there since Richard Nixon in 1972.
Ciruli notes the venerable Cook Political Report has moved the district from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican" for the race race between Republican newcomer Lauren Boebert, who upset incumbent Scott Tipton in June, and former state Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush.
Mitsch Bush lost to Tipton by 8 points two years ago.
The Democrats' internal polling recently showed her tied with Boebert, who has weathered blistering attacks over her past run-ins with law enforcement, food inspectors and tax bills. Mitsch Bush, as Ciruli notes, has tried to moderate some of her liberal views for her second run.
"The Trump number is only believable because a host of polls conducted all year show him losing the state by 10 points or more; hence, in the 3rd Congressional District, he could be running even," Ciruli wrote in his blog Wednesday. "The political forecasters, primarily looking at voting history, have rated the district as they would with Tipton in the field, but with less certainty, and the recent polls are adding more doubt."
Read Ciruli's political forecasts and analysis by clicking here.