CRONIN & LOEVY | Will Election Night 2018 be a double whammy?
Two political waves could be washing across Colorado on election night this Tuesday. The first is a “blue wave” of Democratic votes from folks who dislike Republican President Donald Trump. The second is a “big dollars” wave of Democratic votes caused by the fact Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jared Polis has spent more than $20 million of his own money to defeat Republican Walker Stapleton.
The major question is: How big will those two waves be when they arrive in Colorado on election night? Will Democrat Jared Polis win in a landslide, or will he just barely squeak into office?
The answer matters. If Polis wins big for the Democrats, he doubtless will have “coattails.” That is, he could help elect another Democrat or two for statewide positions and shift the partisan balance in the state Senate. That means you want to watch for the results from state attorney general (Democrat Phil Weiser vs. Republican George Brauchler) and state treasurer (Democrat Dave Young against Republican Brian Watson) contests. Secretary of State Wayne Williams, a Republican, is expected to be re-elected regardless of the waves.
Democrats have frequently won the governorship in recent years while the Republicans take the three lesser statewide offices. If the Republicans can retain two or three of those offices, that will be good news for the GOP. But if the Republicans lose two or three as well as the governorship, it will be a decisive electoral victory for the Democrats.
It will be really dispiriting news for Republicans if George Brauchler and Wayne Williams are beaten. The Democrats will have “cut off at the roots” two promising future Republican candidates for statewide offices, such as the governorship or U.S. senator.
Next, let’s look at the two Republican seats for the U.S. House of Representatives, where Colorado voters have the opportunity to support – or frustrate – Democratic hopes of changing the U.S. House from a Republican majority to a Democratic majority.
All eyes will be glued on Colorado U.S. House District 6 in Aurora, where incumbent Republican Mike Coffman is in the fight of his political life to keep a seat gerrymandered by the Democrats to be a Democratic seat. He has defended the seat in the past against solid Democratic opponents, but the burden of Donald Trump (blue wave) and Polis coattails (big dollar wave) and a strong opponent have put him behind in the polls against Democrat Jason Crow. If Coffman is re-elected, it will be a big boost for Colorado Republicans, but Crow’s chances of winning the seat look good.
We also will be keeping an eye on Colorado U.S. House District 3, which stretches across southern and western Colorado from Pueblo to Grand Junction to Steamboat Springs. Republican incumbent Scott Tipton is challenged by Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush. If Bush beats Tipton and goes to Washington, D.C., in his place, the Democrats will likely gain majority control of the U.S. House. And if so, the blue wave and Jared Polis’s coattails will have reached into every part of Colorado.
And now the ultimate test for the blue wave and Polis coattails. We will be watching to see if the Democrats can win any of the county offices in El Paso County, where the major city is Colorado Springs. El Paso County is the biggest Republican vote-producing county in the state. If the Democrats elect a county commissioner or the county clerk and recorder, which is unlikely, we would have to label the 2018 elections in Colorado a total blowout for the Democrats.
We will be checking on Colorado state Senate races to see if the Democrats can switch control of the state Senate from the present narrow (one seat) Republican majority to Democratic. If that happens and Democrat Jared Polis wins the governorship, the Democrats will control the three major elected sections of Colorado state government – the governor’s office, the state Senate, and the Colorado House of Representatives, which is already safely Democratic.
Republicans and others should not be too despairing about the Democrats dominating under the State Capitol dome in Denver because a party’s power to get things done is severely limited by past constitutional amendments, including the famed Tabor Amendment, which severely limits the power of the legislature and governor to raise revenues and thereby increase expenditures.
What we and many others, are concerned about are the ballot issues that the state’s electorate is voting on this Election Day, because these could make a real difference in how the state is governed and what kind of money could be available to support needed state services.
We will be frowning if Proposition 109 changes state law to use bonds to raise $3.5 billion for state highway projects. We object because Proposition 109 does not raise state taxes to pay for the bonds and thus would almost inevitably steal money in the general budget from schools and state medical programs.
We will both be happy if Proposition 110 passes and raises state sales taxes to pay off $6 billion in state and local road and bridge projects, yet in recent years Colorado voters have been leery of statewide tax increases.
We will be watching Amendment 73. It will raise a much needed $1.6 billion for public schools, which we support, yet there is considerable opposition to it because, among other reasons, the taxes to pay for it will fall almost entirely on wealthy taxpayers and corporations.
Along with everyone else, we will be watching Proposition 112, a change in state law. The setback requirements on new oil and gas developments (drilling) would be raised from 500/1000 feet (depending on the land use) to 2500 feet.
This measure is understandably supported by neighborhoods that have drilling facilities nearby and by ardent environmentalists who wish Colorado would emphasize renewable energy strategies, yet its impact on the Colorado economy could be large. The energy industry has spent much more money to defeat Proposition 112 than Jared Polis has spent in his highly financed effort to win the governorship. Both Polis and Stapleton oppose this measure, but early polls showed it had support. We would much prefer that this type of decision be crafted by the state legislature and the governor at the state capitol and not at the ballot box.
Let’s thank all of those who ran for office this election season. And, regardless of our partisan affiliations, we can rejoice that yard signs are coming down, political postcards will stop coming, and negative TV commercials will be gone – at least for a while.
But, alas, city elections in Denver, Colorado Springs and elsewhere will move into high gear in just a few weeks. And Democrats such as former State Sen. Michael Johnston and others are likely to be announcing their candidacy for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Republican Cory Gardner, up for re-election in 2020. And our term-limited Gov. John Hickenlooper is already running hard for a spot on the Democratic national ticket in 2020.
Politics goes on and on.


